This is one I haven’t heard in a very long time, but I expect to start hearing it more and more through this year. I was having a conversation with a candidate about the prospects of making a job change. This candidate has been with his current employer for about 6 months and needs to make a job change in order to not waste more time working in an unchallenging work environment that is stagnating his career. So I call this guy about a great opportunity with a progressive startup and here’s what he says to me; “I think I’m just going to bunker down here until this recession blows over.”
WHAT?!? What recession are we in again? Oh yeah, the one that has caused the mortgage crisis and the boom in foreclosures and my house to drop in value by 20%. The recession that has forced all of those poor loan officers and real estate agents to look into alternative career options (like recruiting 
and financial services perhaps). That same recession that has caused unemployment to rise a whole two quarters in a row to a whopping 4.8% . Oh yeah, that recession.
Look I’m not taking anything away from the challenges that exist in the above mentioned industries and any other adjacent industries like transportation, construction, restaurants, or most consumer-based businesses.
But let’s think about what it even means for our entire country to have an 4.8% percent unemployment rate. This means that 95 out of every hundred people are employed. The 5 that are unemployed could include those who want work and can’t find it, but it also includes a number of people who CHOOSE not to work like stay at home parents, homeless, teenagers, retirees and the independently wealthy. Let’s also factor in that there are towns throughout the US where jobs truly are limiting like in Michigan, Pennsylvania. Below is actually a list of the US states with the highest unemployment rates. Notice that California, Washington Massachusetts and other tech centric states are far from making this list.
I asked him what any of the above has anything to do with the software marketplace, where I haven’t seen a boom like the one we’re having for the past 10 years. (Infact Techcrunch had an article on how Web 2.0 should thrive in the recession.) I tried to explain to him that even though some of the above mentioned industries are having challenges, the software and technology marketplace is not one of them. He didn’t have a real answer for me except to blindly repeat that times are bad and in times like this, it’s important to stay safe and bunkered.
I spend every day connecting with at least 50 people every day and I can honestly say that I can’t remember the last time somebody called me and said, “Hey Boris, I am unemployed and I can’t for the life of me find a new job right now. Please help me.” Of course, people call me all the time who don’t like their current employer and want to find a more ideal company to join. I also get the people who left their employer to take a sabbatical or to pursue a passion and are now trying to find a new employer. Sure, the latter is unemployed but not because there’s a shortage of jobs out there.
In fact in our marketplace, the opposite is actually happening. There are far more jobs available and companies hiring than there are good people to fill those jobs. The marketplace isn’t as lopsided as it was in the late 90’s where companies were hiring anybody with a pulse just to fill seats and grow as fast as possible. Companies today are taking a much more calculated approach towards hiring and are much more aware of what they hire for in-house vs. what they outsource. But they are hiring nonetheless and I expect them to continue hiring over at least the next 5 years. Some veterans in the recruitment space claim that this lopsidedness of more jobs to people will continue for at least the next 20 years, confident that the labor shortage that will cause the US to have 12 million more jobs that people. If this is true, it will hit corporations like a ton of bricks they have never felt in their entire lifetimes. To put it into perspective, the late 90’s hiring boom only existed because there were 3 million more jobs than there were people. Can somebody even imagine a scenario that is 4 times worse. I can’t imagine it, but I also can’t wait. Good times for recruiters and talented candidates. I think so.
So what does all this mean for the talent pool in the software marketplace? Here are a few tips that I would recommend employing as part of your strategy as you grow within your career.
1) Do not ever settle for a less than stellar employer. Be choosy when looking into new roles and join confidently when you find one. But do not bunker down to wait something through, cause there’s nothing happening in our marketplace that bunkering down will accomplish.
2) Chase skills, experiences and the opportunity to work on exciting projects with other smart people. Don’t take jobs because of convenience reasons, benefits and a few extra bucks here and there. Life is too short and the convenience you seek today will matter very little when you look back upon your career. Take some pride in your career and do things that you love and are passionate about.
3) Consider opportunities as they come to you. Meaning, don’t ever bunker down and be out of touch with the happenings in the marketplace. take calls from recruiters, keep up with your colleagues on LinkedIn and attend networking events just to stay in the know. That way that dream opportunity will never pass you by.
[...] Epstein recently had a post on the askBINC blog titled The Software Marketplace is NOT in a Recession. Epstein says that, as a headhunter, he’s just not seeing a recession in the software [...]